2. In the absence of a reliable field goal kicker, CSU must go for it on fourth down, punt or implement a fake field goal. Coach Prime, whoever he listens to and Tommie Robinson, Director of Quality Control who is performing the duties of Special Teams Coordinator, should be ashamed of their field goal planning, practice, execution and adjustments. Even some extra points are low kicks which is trouble waiting around the corner [Note added, fake using the kicker as the thrower, runner or who hands off to a looping back who runs or throws, or put in a blocking QB]
3. Detailed Stats By CU Possession
Passes and Runs might not match official stats because I have counted plays that were called back due to penalty. PBS is Pass Behind Scrimmage that is equal to a run per Coach Prime.
2 passes, 0 complete, 2 runs
0 pbs, 0 complete, punt
b) 07:23 1Q
5 passes, 4 complete, 3 runs
1 pbs, 1 complete, missed field goal from CSU's 34 yd line, 4th and 7
2 passes, 1 complete, 1 run
0 pbs, 0 complete, punt
d) 11:44 2Q
9 passes, 7 complete, 2 runs
2 pbs, 2 complete, TD pass, 15 yard penalty helped
8 passes, 5 complete, 3 runs
0 pbs, 0 complete, TD pass
f) 15:00 3Q
4 passes, 3 complete, 3 runs
1 pbs, 0 complete, punt
2 passes, 2 complete, 0 runs
0 pbs, o complete, TD pass
h) 3:25 3Q
1 passes, 1 complete, 2 runs
1 pbs, 1 complete, fumble after catch and run
6 passes, 3 complete, 0 runs
2 pbs, 2 complete,TD pass
j) 09:58 4Q
7 passes, 4 complete, 2 runs
1 pbs, 1 complete, punt
5 passes, 1 complete, 2 runs
1 pbs, 1 complete, turnover on downs after failed 4th and 6 attempt from CSU's 34
l) CU scored on 4 out of 11 possessions for a 36% proficiency. This is very low and should be between at least 50% and 67%, if CU expects to vie for the Big 12 Championship.
m) CU's defense also benefited from several CSU mistakes, thus it is difficult to evaluate CU's overall performance in terms of team improvement.A better barometer will be reducing penalties to 4 or less.
Another barometer will be a 29.3 points per game Baylor offense and a 9.7 points per game Baylor defense compared to CU's 23 points per game offense and 21 points per game defense. Thus CU is scoring 6 points less while giving up 11 points more, for a 17 point average disadvantage. Although this is a general barometer affected by many factors contributing to points scored and points allowed, I perceive this as CU having no margin for error and cannot give away first downs, chunk plays, penalties and turnovers. These four factors will determine the game outcome if both teams play to the level of their 3 week average scheming and execution. We cannot give more weight to the last game since we have not seen a pattern of sustained improvement.
n) If CSU had played 20% better in scheming and execution and eliminated two turnovers, the game would have gone down to the wire again.
o) CU has 4 turnovers and 4 takeaways. Baylor has turned the ball over 6 times and has 4 takeaways. What we don't know, in the absence of further review film analysis, is whether these turnovers were forced or unforced. Based on a simplistic assessment of the 3 game average, there is a Game 4 potential for CU to have 1 turnover and 1 takeaway, while for Baylor it is 2 turnovers and 1 takeaway. As stated in UC#3155, it is not simply the number of turnovers and takeaways, but also when they occur and what the other team does with them.
Unadjusted vs CSU: 19 runs to 49 passes for a 28% run percentage
Adjusted vs CSU: 28 runs + pbs to 40 passes for a 41% run + pbs percentage.
The statistics for the first two games have not been adjusted, so the CSU game will form the new basis for the next three games to see what the trend and distribution is, and see if the traditional running game illusion is removed by the adjusted running game statistics. This is appropriate since starting with the CSU game, several personnel and scheme changes were made.
Lastly, the average yards per run has not been adjusted due to extra effort required to calculate this number for the pbs and then also deduct it from passing yards. This number would be useful to see how effective those pbs are. Based on memory, it seems some pbs go nowhere and lose yards, while some pbs are good for 3 to 7 yards. This is similar to the outcome of runs in the CSU game, both methods more effective than in the first two games.
Hopefully, CU will use more traditional screen passes, middle screens, TE delays and counter backfield hand-offs that get the ball into a RB or WR hands so they can outrun people.
